The Fiscal Transfer
Fiscal transfer: the implied transfer to Scotland over time
This chart shows the implied fiscal transfer between the rest of the UK and Scotland.
This is not a figure which appears directly in the GERS report, but as explained in the fiscal transfer section, the only assumption that is required to calculate this figure is what proportion of the UK's deficit (hence movement in UK debt) Scotland is assumed to take. The fiscal transfer is the difference between this assumed annual liability and the actual scale of Scotland's contribution to the UK's deficit.
Selecting "Debt share basis: none" and looking at 2020/21 shows what that assumption implies. In that Covid year Scotland ran a very large deficit — as did the rest of the UK — with spending in Scotland including UK-wide support such as the furlough scheme. On a population-share debt basis the implied fiscal transfer that year was around £13 billion, in line with other recent years. On a "no debt share" basis it is around £40 billion, because the assumption is that Scotland took on no liability for any of the borrowing that funded its deficit: the entire liability would sit with the rest of the UK.